The United States have been in an election since early 2019 and is in the midst of picking the Democratic Party’s candidate to run against Republican president Donald Trump. This has meant rallies, town halls and polling stations for well over a year now.
However something has disrupted this process. The sudden mass arrival of COVID-19 on the US mainland. No longer can people meet in mass gatherings as an election like this demands.
Talk has even been made of President Trump’s ability to completely cancel the election and postpone it.
This begs a crucial question. If this turns into a larger health, economic and political crisis what will happen to the US election. Set to continue until the final election day in november.
To figure this out we can look at how previous national crisis in the US impacted presidential elections.
9/11 terrorist attacks 2001
The 9/11 terrorist attacks are a much different crisis than the one facing America currently. However like all crisis and elections they depend greatly on how the present leadership handles the crisis. 9/11 is a good example of how the president’s actions affect a reelection.
The september 11. terrorist attacks on the twin towers occurred on the exact same date as a municipal primary election was set to take place in New York. However the state legislature passed an emergency bill in order to postpone the election by two weeks. Giving us an example of what a crisis might directly do to a election.
It was also reported in 2004 that some parts of the Bush administration were talking about postponing the federal election in case of a another terrorist attack on US soil. However that idea fizzled away and was eventually given up on. However it shows the possible massive effects of a great crisis on US soil.
It was widely reported, in the aftermath of Bush’s election win in 2004 that the reason for President Bush´s win, was his handling of the 9/11 crisis and the following war on terror. Showing himself in the eyes of many as a strong and capable leader in face of a great national crisis. Therefor the crisis of 9/11 can be said to have had a direct political effect on the election, giving Bush 4 more years in office. As it might also have, positive or negatively, as President Trump’s handling of the crisis become apparent.
The world is a much different place more than 100 years after the 1918 pandemic. The pandemic in itself is also very different. The election in 2020 is also very different than the one americans faced in 1918. However this is perhaps the crisis in american history that resembles the current crisis most.
During the 1918 election, some incumbents were criticized for campaigning throughout the country, and not being in Washington to deal with the crisis. Therefore many politicians chose to communicate with voters through letters or press releases instead. One 1918 candidate even campaigned by greeting voters from his car, and drove around to voters.
The response to the virus varied greatly from area to area, however qurateenes, like today, were in effect in many places. In some areas local officials and campaigns made deals to open primary polling places and for speeches by the candidates to be given in front, as to boost the candidates changes. In an attempt to use the crisis for political gain, as we might very well also see today.
The national quarantine was lifted for 5 days before the election in november and politicians were allowed to campaign in those last days. However after the election infections and deaths climbed rapidly, even though voter turnout was very low.
Wars 1776 to 2020
The United States have been involved in a fair share of wars since the American Revolution. The war of 1812, the US Civil war, WW1, WW2 and Vietnam. Just to name a few. In common for them all is that no matter how close or far the fighting was from the continental US, presidential elections kept on.
However these wartime election did not come without problems. One of the largest, being how soldiers could vote while being on the battlefront. It became a large issue during the US Civil War and fears about voter fraud plagued the debate. However eventually military suffrage was implemented. The controversy did not stop there though as endless debate was had about the effects this had upon the elections.
History and today
So if history teaches us anything, it is that the election will likely not be cancelled. As America has seen a variety of different crisis before, but elections have kept on.
However what will likely happen is that the election will not occur without problems and conflict. Like 9/11 the crisis will impact voters view of the president because of his handling of the crisis. Like the 1918 pandemic more people might contract the virus when voting. Like America’s wars a logistical nightmare might arrive as people will have to vote from home in much greater numbers.